Debate - MSBHL V Lojozz - WINNER ANNOUNCED!!!

Let me throw out two pieces of probability that support either argument.

To support the idea that the crash of Oceanic 815 was not planned:

Oceanic 815 takes off, losing communications and travels over a thousand miles off course. (The pilot's action are suspect, yes, but if he was acting deliberately he was subjecting himself to a plane crash, willingly. That's tough.)

So we've got plane travelling off course that, at the right spot above a hard-to-get-to Island, at that precise time just below we have Desmond not pushing the button. These events occur simultaneously, and highly improbably. The level of co-ordination for, say, Inman to ensure Desmond definitely followed him, and yet made it back in time to barely press the buttons (this, too, cost Inman his life). It's staggering. It's improbable. It's surely a suggestion that there was no plan, just these incidents coincided to produce an amazing coincidence.

To support the idea that the crash of Oceanic 815 was planned:

So there's a guy on a plane that's won the lottery. 4 8 15 16 23 42 were the numbers he used. And guess what? This guy, Hurley, he crashes on an Island (and survives). And on this Island, there's a hatch that's got the 4 8 15 16 23 42 numbers on it. Under which, a man enters this same code into a computer constantly.

The man, Hurley, he was on board flight 8-15. . . I mean, come on! Isn't that pushing random chance? Doesn't that suggest design?

- - - - - -

Unfortunately for Lojozz, working through that last comment has made me come to a strong conclusion that there was no design.

Whilst it may seem beyond coincidental that Hurley with his 4 8 15 16 23 42 landed on an Island that featured these numbers, it's actually logical that he would end up there.

Where did Hurley get the numbers from? Leonard in the mental institute. Where did Leonard get the numbers from? The Island. So the fact that Hurley has a connection with the Island despite never having been there before is completely explicable.

Oh dear.

Still, Lojozz has used Locke as a prime example of design rather than accident - I might sift that around and re-read these arguments and challenge the integrity of that. . .

(Sorry for the long comments, but the act of typing helps my brain work it through.)

Its all part of the time guardians plan they need to help course correction.

What are the chances of 815 being in the right place at the right time without design?

Lojozz:

What are the chances of 815 being in the right place at the right time without design?

For me, better chance than it being design. I can believe in the random incident coinciding to make coincidence better than I can believe in design. . .

Reminds me of that "Don't make coincidence for fate", and vice-versa, that has been phrased in Lost.

But I still think with Locke and Christian there are some compelling tools towards design, so I'm not done yet!

BUt once you add Charlie, Jack, Claire, Locke, Hurley to the plane and then it being in the right place at the right time especially 1000 miles off course with a substituted pilot then what are the chances?

Jack and Claire being related without knowing it I can get as further evidence. Especially a pregnant Claire. Locke I can get. Hurley I've discussed. I would also add Locke's father being the real Sawyer as another strong connection as validation of your theory of intent.

You're right, collectively these people start to become hard to pass off as coincidence.

Why have you cited Charlie as a reason for planning?

Charlie ties in with the argument for course correction being the plan, but I think I added him more because I'd entertained myself with the idea that he is now a 'Time Guardian'

Once again I am going to go back to Locke. It seems he's the key to
most of my arguments. After the undeniable evidence given her I think
we can agree that Ben did Not plan the crash,
wanting Ethan and Goodwin to make lists, looking surprosed that the
plane fell, ect. And we can agree that no company or organisation
planned it as the level of planning would be impossible to accomplish.
So once you take away those possibilites youve got, Jacob - for and
Destiny - against.

For the crash was intened

Someone or something clearly wants Locke on the island, he
survived a premature birth, falling 8 stories ect. So we know that
Locke is special, and it looks like he'll replace Jacob as the guardian
of the island. So picture this, Locke is brought to the island 'The
Juilet way' he becomes a part of the others healing his disablilty and
restoring his confidence. He slowly is being groomed to become the
leader of the island. As we know Ben can and will find out anything he
wants. So inevitable he will find out that Locke is going to become the
new guardian of the island, the title that Ben wants. If that happens I
think we'll see a simmilar situation, with the Ben - Juliet - Goodwin
triangle. Yes Locke will die. So Locke Cannot be
brought there normally. He has to creep up on Ben. As we saw Ben
already tried to kill Locke in 'The man behind the curtain'. Locke must
he brought secretley to the island. Ben must not find out. That
counteracts MSHL's argument about Locke being brought normally.

Against the crash was intened

Why would anyone with a heart even try to kill 300 people just
to get one or two people. We dont know much about Jacob but he seems to
have at least once been human. The only thing that could kill 300
people and lose no sleep is the universe, destiny. Destiny doesnt care
what happens if it needs this one person then it will get it. Only
something like the universe could kill so many and be sure that the end
result makes up for the loss.

So there two equal reasons for Jacob/Destiny in my mind they are the only two possible organisers.

TheHolyStickman

I still think that a persons soul can lead a person to certain places. It is called "vibrating" or something like that. Like for example (if you believe in this kinda stuff), say you have a soul that lived in Ancient Egypt, then today you may be fascinated by ancient egyptian culture. Also, if you believe in this kinda stuff, then the soul always finds its mate.

What if some of the survivors of O815 have souls that once lived on the island, therefore the soul found its home.

That said, I guess this is an argument against a plan, so to speak, to get certain people on the island. Also if this is true, then it could explain why maybe they survived. They are from the island, so the island protects its own.

I think that all of the interconnectedness and coincedences that surround our Losties is just to great to ignore. It has been shown that destiny or the future can't be changed, which states that all of these people were predetermined to arrive on the island. This says that all of the "varibles" weren't varibles at all, but part of destiny.

Funny, when I started typing this my intention was to argue that they were manipulated as part of a plan to get them on the island. The more I actually thought about it, there is no plan that has been even hinted at, just that these survivors all share some sorta past.

Anyways, sorry if this is jumbled, for I am typing my thoughts as they come to me. I guess that I believe that they are destined to be on that island. Fate stepped in and got them where they needed to be in order to be on that plane.

Some quickies.
Lojozz, you point out ways in which Locke was Protected. That means my son was also protected by the island. He was 6 weeks premature, fought off a number of illnesses, blew out a lung and required surgury before he was even a few months old. I only share this because my chaild and millions of others have survived similar, if not worse situations at birth. To assign this as "island protection" is opinion. I konw that med tech has progressed a great deal since the 1950's but we are a heardy species, we have survived ice ages, sabre tooth tigers, epidemics and much more.

Fate is a fickle bitch---that "fickle" part is how we interperate fate, it is not a definition of fate itself. Fate (or destiny if you prefer) is unalterable...and it was Ben who brought up Fate to Locke.

Hope, it is not jumbled at all. I agree that the Losties were destined to be there. They are EXACTLY where the are supposed to be at EXACTLY the right time.

HSM I have to agree with utter sadness of killing 300+ people to get one.
I also agree that Ben/Others/outside organization could not have been responsible for the Losties all ending up on the island.
As you wrote that leaves us with Jacob or Destiny.

Here's why I think it can't be Jacob. First of all, he is not all-powerful. He may not even be tremendously powerful. At one point, we hear him asking John Locke for help, If he has such power to manipulate the lives of all of the people on the plane and all of the thousands of little things that influence these people every day of their lives, then he would have to have such incredible power as we cannot even grasp. He would not have to ask Locke for anything. As stated before, with this kind of power, he could affect any change, bring any person he wants to the island and he wouldn't need Ben or Locke or Richard Alpert or anyone else to help him.

He could have dispatched Widmore and the mercenaries as easily as we brush a mosquito off of our arm but he didn't. He asked (it sounded like pleaded) with Locke for help. These are not the actions of a tremendously powerful entity.These are the actions of a force which needs help, which acts through intermediaries and needs people to assist in his goals.

This leaves us with Destiny, or fate if you prefer.
It is clear that he wants Locke on the island but that is all that is clear.

If you look at the evidence presented, you can find no other answer to satisfy all that we have witnessed.

The idea of there being a plan appeals to all of us. we like to think that there is order and reason behind the Universe and maybe there is...I don't know. But if there was a plan to bring the Losties to the island, I have to say that it may be one that was crafted on OUR side of the TV screen, not on the Lost Producer's side of the TV screen.

If my estimations are correct, the question and rebuttal phase of the debate is drawing to a close. If so, let me thank Sunburned Penguin for indulging us in this debate and Lojozz for defending his side so passionately. I have enjoyed this tremendously. And thanks to all have read these postings and forced the two of us to put on our thinking caps.

Thanks LJ, good luck and may the best arguments win

p.s. Lojozz...
Ben is in the coffin

3 hours till voting time!!!!!

Loving this debate, its fantastic

I've just read it all again.

I think I've made up my mind. . .

Well-argued on both sides though, I did keep veering one way and then the other. . .

Oh God three hours now only 2 1/2 hours. Before I post anything more I just want to say, and I think people will agree with me. That these two days of debate has been more fun than any time I was ever on LT.com. MSHL and Lojozz you are both swaying me back and forth I'm not even sure who i'm voting for yet. This really is a great site.

MSHL I like the way you have combined lost with our real feelings. Its exactly how I feel, I want there to be a logical answer for everything. Thats why I much prefrer Maths to Art. Theres always an answer.

You mention how that if Jacob was an all powerful being why would he need Lockes help. I'm not going to say that he's all powerful but from what we've seen (Throwing Ben against a wall ect) it seems that Jacob has powers that exceed the limits of a normal human. Now as i've read a lot of books and seen a lot of films with powerful beings, in most of them the rule is Not to intervene unless absolutley neccessary. I believe that this is the rule with Jacob, I know its a weak argument but this is my final attempt if MSHL counter this he's won. As I stated above JAcob wont mess up things that he can get other people to do. If you want a simpler explanation its like if Jacob interferes with the whats happening on the island it is like changing destiny/fate. Now I know there is not much evidence to support this point. But I think its either this or plain old Fate.

P.S. As i've said before this is my last post arguing. Now i'm just going to sit back and enjoy.

TheHolyStickman

SunnyP does it end at 12:00.

Yep 12pm GMT Just over 2 hours to go and I still have no idea who I agree more with, both make such excellent arguments!

HSM Here's my answer.

1. Not to intervene unless absolutley neccessary. is an Idea that WE apply to our notions of powerful beings...we have no Idea how one would actually act if they existed. It's an interesting thought experiment but in the end it leaves us with only supposition. That means we have to go based on the evidence we've seen so far.

2. If Jacob intervened earlier, many many lives would have been saved. This would suggest he has little regard for life, only his agenda. This does not sound like the type of powerful entity that any rational person would want to follow. "Above all else, a God needs compassion"

Can Jacob alter destiny? No, if he could (or anyone else/thing could) then it wouldn't be destiny. Can he change the course of events? So it would seem, but only inasmuch as destiny (as seen on Lost throughout it's 4 seasons) will allow.

I'll leave you with some quotes...
Locke:
"Don't mistake fate for coincidence"
"This is my destiny"
Locke to Jack in the hatch after subduing Desmond:
"...are you more upset...that he recognized you? Because that would be impossible."
Ben:
"Destiny is a fickle bitch" (he may have said fate---same difference)
Desmond:
"I'm sorry Charlie, no matter what I do...you're gonna die"

Lost has been slapping us in the face with Destiny over and over since the beginning. Peoples' lives intertwining in seemingly impossible ways, characters trying to find themselves and failing, These are things we cannot ignore.

Plans cannot make these things that we've seen happen, only the combined destinies of the Losties can.

OK a few last points from me.

MSHL I don't want to argue about your son but 6 weeks is not 3 months and I'm guessing he has not fallen from an eight storey window or survived a plane falling apart at approx 400 miles and hour.

I keep hearing people say that destiny or future cant be changed this is simply not true (at least in the world of Lost).

We've had Daniel say you cant change the future but he says this before he has managed to send Eloise to the future where he does change the future, he no longer has to teach the maze. Daniel was speaking at the time from a position of what he believed, but that does not necessarily make it fact.

We've had Mrs Hawkin say that the universe will course correct but ask yourself this, why did she have to tell Des that if he didn't go back and do as he did the time before, every one of us would die? She had to step in because course correction simply would not have worked because the island had sent him back.

The future has also been changed by Des saving Charlie. If he had died from the lightning he would not have turned off the jammer, jack could not have called the boat and Bonnie, Greta, Mikhail, Alex, Karl, Danielle at least 3 Red Shirts would still be alive. That’s a minimum of 9 people who have died because Des didn't let Charlie die first time round, now tell me that destiny can not be changed.

I also see a lot of people saying it can only be Jacob or fate, well I have already argued that there are still other players in Lost and we don’t know how they fit.

I have shown above that Course Correction sometimes needs help from 'Time Guardians' and I have already argued that they could be responsible for the plan to get the Losties there so course correction could actually work.

Let me just point out again at least 4 of the people on that plane were there after some form of contact with Christian. Christian has his grandchild born on the island and he and his daughter are now happy in Jacob's cabin requesting Locke who also appeared on the same plane to move the island. Is Locke the only one with the power to now move the island? We'll soon find out. This plane carrying all of these people also had the pilot replaced at the last minute and was supposedly 1000 miles of course.

As for the deaths of all of the others on the plane, lets not forget that they were building a runway on the Hydra island and without going too loopy on you, that runway has to have a purpose (does it not?) perhaps the plan is actually that 815 is to land on that runway.

Good luck and thanks to my very worthy (if verbose) opponent. MSHL its been fun.

Poll has been added How long do you want the poll to run for?

I would hope that most people have made up their minds by now so I don't think it needs to be too long, but it needs to be long enough for time differences etc to allow all a chance to vote.

Lets give it 24 hours, does that sound reasonable. That way its done in time for the new episode.

24 hours sounds good

Also perhaps it would be nice if when people vote they leave a comment saying how they voted perhaps even why if they can be bothered. What do people think?

"Destiny is not a plan."

That was MSHL's main point, and it was a good one. Because I think it is unfeasible to believe that someone planned to get the Losties they wanted on board Oceanic 815 to get them to the Island. (For one thing, if the crash was planned the planner was responsible for the deaths of over two hundred innocent people. That surely puts Ben "I'm a good guy" Linus out of the frame, or anyone who professes to be a "good person".)

Whilst is seems unfeasibly unlikely that these connected people arbitrarily wound up on the same flight and survived the crash we can put it down to some kind of cosmic order of fate or destiny, where Men of Faith would see a higher power than humans could comprehend taking effect. Or we can call it coincidence being stranger than design, where Men of Science would reason for evolution against creationism as example of haphazard order baffling the logic of purposeful intent.

Either way, there's no plan. Crazy stuff happens, jumbles together, and makes something that seems organised.

I considered Locke as the persuasive factor against; how it seems his whole life has been engineered to getting him to the Island. If Locke had been planned to get there, surely others could have been too? Well, probably not. Fact is Alpert and Mittelos and who knows who else tried hard to get Locke - but he turned away. Perhaps Locke was not their sole target. Perhaps they spent time targeting other potential 'candidates' as well. But, as fate would have it in an ironic twist, the man they had tried and failed to get to the Island ended up getting there anyway - just without their ultimate intervention.

Proof, perhaps for Alpert and other believers, that Locke really was meant to be on the Island. . .

If destiny is not a plan, and those that are supposed to be on the Island get to the Island no matter what (think of Frank Lapidus, originally meant to be the Oceanic 815 pilot who got to the Island eventually anyway) then there was no human planning involved. What's meant to be is meant to be.

My vote goes to MSHL.

Although you may be surprised, my vote goes to MSHL. Although I have been arguing against him this whole time, inch by inch he started to change me. Every argument I could think of he shot down with a theory of his own. And then I was left with no choice but to belive his side. Destiny. Once MSHL got destiny on his side, he had won half the battle. Lojozz very well too keeping me on his side for most of the debate. And I would still like to see more evidence about Jacob, if we find out Jacob didnt crash the plane then I will completley agree with MSHL. But since one of the shows core elements is desting/fate I cant deny that it seems very likley.

A Very Very enjoyable topic, I hope to see more debates like this. Thanks to Lojozz and MyStarbucksHatesLost.

TheHolyStickman

I'm now not sure my idea to leave a reason why you voted was a good idea, I have two huge arguments against that I can't reply to, bah! That said if you're voting for me leave as much an argument as you want! He he

When the debate started I was open minded towards both sides. All the relations between the Losties got me thinking of a possible intention of 815´s crash. But there was also doubt that one entity is able of such an immense power to influence and orchestrate these variables which led to the final outcome.

Once Ben and the Others were ruled out as the heads of a manipulation we were left with Jacob and destiny. That definitely got me on MSHL´s bandwagon. However, suddenly Lojozz threw in the "Time Guardians". I really liked this idea. It was something I never thought of before. Very intriguing. And although I stepped back and sit on the fence again, for a little while, I am back with MSHL.

The "Time Guardians" in correlation with course correction is as elusive as destiny. Both are somewhat spiritual terms which refuse rational and scientific explanations. Yet the concept of destiny is more tangible. We have a common sense what´s behind fate. Therefore: MyStarbuckHatesLost, my vote goes to you.

Like others already said, both of you did a great job. I enjoyed it very much.